Football: Friday Night Forecast — Nov. 17, 2023

Here is the breakdown — and picks — for area teams playing in tonight’s region semifinals in the Metro and Suburban divisions. The winners advance to next week’s region finals.

Last week’s record: 19-1

Overall record: 391-108

Tonight’s area Region Semifinal Matchups

Metro

Class 4

For the full MaxPreps bracket click here.

Region 2
No. 5 Durant (9-2) at No. 1 Sumner (10-1), 7:30

In September, the Cougars rallied from a 21-6 fourth quarter deficit to beat Sumner 28-27. Durant completed the comeback by successfully converting a two-point conversion in the waning seconds. That win helped the Cougars eventually win their second straight district title under coach Claybo Varnum. Still, despite being the district champion, Durant is again playing on the road because of having a lower seed than its opponent. Stingrays quarterback Greg Smith III, a highly touted prospect, was injured and did not play in that first matchup against the Cougars. Since Smith III returned, Sumner has won four straight games, averaging 43 points per contest. This could end up being one of the best quarterback battles in the area with Smith III going up against Durant’s Michael Ryan. Each has thrown for more than 20 touchdowns this season. 

Putnam’s pick: Sumner 30-28

No. 6 Orlando Dr. Phillips (7-4) at No. 2 Plant (9-2), 7:30

The Panthers are in the region semifinals for the second straight season. In order to return to the second round, Plant had to hold off Plant City in a wild 31-27 victory last week. After starting 0-2, the Panthers have won nine straight games. The defense has played a big role in this resurgence, allowing six points or less in seven of those wins. If Plant advances, it could end up meeting Sumner in the region final in a rematch of last year’s quarterfinal thriller. Dr. Phillips got here by beating Orlando Olympia in last week’s quarterfinals to exact revenge from an earlier loss in the regular season.   

Putnam’s pick: Plant 24-21

Class 3

For the full MaxPreps bracket click here.

Region 1
No. 3 Tampa Bay Tech (9-2) at No. 2 Armwood (10-1), 7:30

Three weeks ago, these teams met with the host Hawks winning 51-34 to clinch a district title. It was the first time Armwood had beaten the rival Titans. After its final two games of the regular season, Tampa Bay Tech bounced back with a win over Neptune Beach Fletcher in last week’s quarterfinals. But it was costly. Titans running back Rod Gainey Jr., a Charlotte commit, was ejected for throwing punches and will not play tonight. Despite not having his leading rusher, Tampa Bay Tech coach Jayson Roberts said he still feels confident about reversing the outcome from the regular season. Armwood enters on a seven-game win streak. Last week, the Hawks got past Wharton for the second time this season. The 20-14 quarterfinal victory marked the first time in the last six games that Armwood did not score more than 40 points.  

Putnam’s pick: Armwood 31-28

Region 2
No. 6 Gaither (6-5) at No. 2 Largo (9-2), 7:30

Playing a tough schedule paid off for the Cowboys. After starting 1-4, Gaither has won five of its six games, including a 42-14 victory over St. Petersburg in last week’s quarterfinals to reach the second round of the playoffs for the second straight season. The defending region finalist Packers took their first step to getting back to the third round with a 25-14 win over East Bay in the quarterfinals. The biggest matchup is the Cowboys’ offense, led by quarterback Jayce Nixon, running back Elija Mason and receivers Ladainian Ferrell and Latrell Taylor, going up against Largo’s defense, led by linebackers Adarius Hayes (a Florida commit) and Jacobi McDonald, lineman Chris Kalu and defensive backs Bari Williams, Darrin Townsend, Chase Green and Marcus McCluster. Gaither is averaging 36 points per game. The Packers, meanwhile, have allowed less than 20 points in nine games. 

Putnam’s pick: Largo 20-16

No. 5 Northeast (8-3) at No. 1 Jesuit (9-2), 7:30

After making the region quarterfinals each of the last two seasons, the Vikings took the next step by getting to the second round with last week’s 27-26 win over Hillsborough. It was Northeast’s third straight victory – all against playoff teams – that was decided by five or less points. Now comes the toughest test of all with the Vikings traveling to take on the defending state semifinalist Tigers. Since starting 1-2, Jesuit has won eight straight games, including victories over previously undefeated Armwood, Fort Myers Bishop Verot and Tampa Bay Tech. The offense has been on a tear, led by quarterback Will Griffin, who has thrown for a combined 12 touchdowns in the last three games, including a school record seven in the regular season finale against rival Tampa Catholic. 

Putnam’s pick: Jesuit 35-21

Class 2

For the full MaxPreps bracket click here.

Region 2
No. 5 Tampa Catholic (5-5) at No. 1 Berkeley Prep (9-2), 7

This is a rematch from a game in September that the Buccaneers won 36-7. Berkeley Prep rushed for 285 yards and its defense forced four turnovers in that earlier matchup. Dallas Golden, a major recruit, led the way by rushing for 117 yards on offense and picking off two passes on defense. Golden and teammate Joseph Troupe have each rushed for more than 1,000 yards this season. The balance in their rushing attack is a big reason the Buccaneers have won six straight games. The defense also has been stingy during this current streak, allowing a combined 37 points. Though they have struggled to find consistency, the Crusaders are showing signs of a turnaround. They took a big step by routing Robinson in last week’s quarterfinals to exact revenge for a one-point loss earlier this season. The offense, led by quarterback Trey Hedden (Furman commit) and receiver TJ Moore (Clemson recruit), has been prolific. After all, Tampa Catholic is averaging 39 points per game.    

Putnam’s pick: Berkeley Prep 28-21

No. 3 Clearwater (7-4) at No. 2 Calvary Christian (9-2), 7:30

Last month, the host Warriors pounded their public city counterpart in a 27-3 victory. That helped Calvary Christian ultimately become a district champion. Defense played a big role in that first matchup with the Warriors registering five sacks, including four by Callahan Blair, and forcing four turnovers, highlighted by Nelson Sparrow’s two interceptions. But the offense has been just as strong. Calvary Christian has scored at least 56 points in each of its last three games. Jacob Drackett, an Air Force commit, has thrown for at least three touchdowns in each of the last five games, including six in last week’s quarterfinal win over Lakewood. Since that loss to Calvary Christin last month, the Tornadoes have won three of their last four games. Their success has been in large part to a stingy defense, which allowed a combined 36 points in the last three wins, and the running of Ti’lan McGee, who has 1,611 yards and 18 touchdowns this season. 

Putnam’s pick: Calvary Christian 28-14

Class 1

For the full MaxPreps bracket click here.

Region 3
No. 4 Indian Rocks Christian (6-4) at No. 1 Clearwater Central Catholic (10-0), 7:30

These teams are meeting in the region semifinals for the second straight season. Last year, the host Marauders won 63-12 en route to reaching the state title game. Clearwater Central Catholic, the only area team to play in a state final last season, returned most of its playmakers. That experience showed throughout the regular season. The Marauders went undefeated and were ranked fifth overall in the state, regardless of class, in the final Florida High School Athletic Association power rankings leading up to the playoffs. Their lofty status is due in large part to beating eight teams that made the playoffs. Once again, CCC quarterback Jershaun Newton leads the team in passing and rushing. After starting 4-0, the Golden Eagles have lost four of their last six games. IRC, led by all-purpose talent Anthony Harris, has a potent offense that is averaging 28 points per game.

Putnam’s pick: CCC 45-14

No. 2 Carrollwood Day (7-1) at No. 3 Northside Christian (6-4), 7

This is a rematch from last year’s region semifinal game that the Patriots won 37-6. Carrollwood Day’s only loss is by a point on a failed two-point conversion to defending state finalist Clearwater Central Catholic. That loss cost the Patriots a district title and likely hosting through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Still, Carrollwood Day is ranked No. 4 in the class and No. 19 overall in the state by MaxPreps thanks to wins over Calvary Christian, FSU High and Miami Gulliver Prep, among others. The Patriots want nothing more than to get another matchup with the rival Marauders, a team that has beaten Carrollwood Day three times in the two seasons, including last year’s region final. To do that, the Patriots have to get past the Mustangs. Despite battling through injuries, Northside Christian won its second straight district title under first-year coach Bailey Granier. The coped with the loss of Howard commit the first half of the season and quarterback Chase Burrill last month. Blake Van Wormer has filled in admirably at quarterback during that time.

Putnam’s pick: Carrollwood Day 38-13

Suburban

Class 4

For the full MaxPreps bracket click here.

Region 2
No. 3 Wiregrass Ranch (9-2) at No. 2 Lake Minneola (8-3), 7:30

The Bulls, who are enjoying one of their best seasons in school history, are trying to reach the region final for the first time. The offense, directed by quarterback Luke Knight, is the driving force behind Wiregrass Ranch’s success. The Bulls have scored 30 or more points in all but one game this season. And it keeps getting better. In the last two games, Wiregrass Ranch has scored a combined 100 points. Knight, an Army commit, has set nearly every school and Pasco County record in throwing for 3,602 yards and 41 touchdowns this season. His favorite target is Isaiah Riggins, who leads the state in receiving yards with 1,465. Expect another high-scoring game. The Hawks, winners of seven straight, are averaging 41 points per game. 

Putnam’s pick: Wiregrass Ranch 52-48

Class 3

For the full MaxPreps bracket click here.

Region 2
No. 4 Zephyrhills (8-3) at No. 1 Ocala Vanguard (9-2), 7:30

The Bulldogs are one game away from advancing to the region final for the first time. In preparation for a potential deep playoff run, Zephyrhills beefed up its schedule with games against non-Pasco County foes Lake Wales and Dunnellon, among others. Now, the Bulldogs will see if those tough games can have some dividends. Ocala Vanguard, the top seed, has won its last three games by a combined 141-0. The challenge for Zephyrhills will be getting its offense, led by quarterback Brendy Colella, running back Rodney Smith and receiver DJ Pickett, to generate enough points against the Knights’ defense, which has posted five shutouts this season. 

Putnam’s pick: Vanguard 27-13

Class 1

For the full MaxPreps bracket click here.

Region 3
No. 4 Lakeland Victory Christian (5-5) at No. 1 Zephyrhills Christian (8-2), 7

This is a rematch from a regular season game the host Warriors won 27-20. That victory helped Zephyrhills Christian secure its first district title. In that game, Parker Stirnkorb threw for two touchdowns, both going to Kendall Johnson. But Johnson is more than just a receiving threat. The junior ran for a touchdown, connected on all three extra points and even had two punts land inside the 20-yard line in that first matchup against Victory Christian. After starting 2-2, the Warriors have won six straight games. Four of those were decided by eight points or less. The Storm is trying to rebound after losing four of its last six games. Lakeland Christian also have been in plenty of close contests with five of its last six games decided by seven points or less.

Putnam’s pick: Zephyrhills Christian 21-13